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In other words, most countries and companies from other countries usually need to transact business in U. At least in the short-medium term, the Fed could directly purchase all of the treasuries the Government issues. Under worse case scenarios, the banking industry would contract. All other things being equal, the U. But the United States global position need not decline relative to most other countries. If, in particular, China were not a variable in this equation all this might be a reasonable bet for the United States to take; however, China is a variable in the equation.
Interest on balances in these accounts could be at positive, zero or negative rates. By way of such an account, entities would be able to electronically transact with others, typically using their phones, Paypal, WeChat Pay, credit or debit cards — effectively, a government-underwritten type of bitcoin, on steroids. In such a world, all the actions we described the U.
Fed doing above become outdated. Rather, every unit of CBDC-type money that is issued by a country can have specific rules electronically attached to it. These rules can include: how quickly the money must be spent; on what goods and services it can be spent; which individuals or businesses it can be spent with. It cannot be used to meet an inflation target. This lesson was learnt during the s, after which the tax system was widely simplified, which greatly enhanced collections.
It is remarkable how short the collective memory is. The developed economies of the northern hemisphere can pursue imprudent fiscal policies because in the short term they can get away with this. They have large, diverse and robust economies. In the case of Europe and Japan, they have external surpluses, so are less vulnerable to capital flight.
Even though in all likelihood these nations are creating serious problems for the future, they have the freedom to be irresponsible without immediate adverse consequences. The same does not apply to emerging markets and, in particular, does not apply to South Africa. In recent years we have been trapped in economic stagnation. There is widespread agreement that escaping from this unhappy situation will require increased investment by productive enterprises. Unfortunately, our fiscal deficit has grown so large it is currently consuming our national savings in their entirety and, even on the most optimistic projections, threatens to crowd the private sector out of domestic capital markets for years to come.
To fund a growing economy, South Africa requires foreign capital. We also benefit from short-term flows taking advantage of our higher interest rates.
Foreigners who invest in emerging markets are particularly neurotic about governments that are unconventionally imprudent. They wish to avoid investing in a country that will become the next Zimbabwe, Venezuela or Argentina. Among the warning signals which would prompt instant capital flight, is funding the government by printing money. A central bank acts as a lender of last resort. In the process of restoring financial stability, it bought R30bn of government bonds.
Such purchases were totally appropriate. What market participants would regard as totally unacceptable would be continuing purchases to facilitate the funding of the fiscal deficit. This would prompt immediate capital flight, which would make financing the government more difficult and more expensive. The rand would be much more vulnerable. There is a lot of foreign money in South Africa, including about Rbn in government bonds, the owners of which could panic. The rand would weaken with inflationary consequences, which would force the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates.
While there would be immediate short-term costs, even more damaging would be the long-term consequences of exclusion from international capital markets. Now Reading:. Membership My Account. Rewards for Good. Share with facebook. Share with twitter. Share with linkedin. Share using email.
National Debt Glossary Looks up the key terms for understanding America's financial crisis. A — B Appropriation — Budget Surplus. Appropriation Appropriation act Authorization Authorization, annual Backdoor spending authority Balanced budget Balanced budget amendment Budget deficit Budget resolution, congressional Budget surplus.
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